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多角度剖析OPEC维也纳大会,一文掌握最佳交易时机

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年06月27日 06:37:42
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时时彩一般在哪玩平台直招龙虎代理客服QQ【3512280158】诚招代理【在线开户网址um996.com】龙虎和龙虎1赔2.211合1赔9.95,定位胆1赔9.95腾讯分分彩,5分,10分彩,最高返水100反9快,最高赔率,正规信誉大平台平台24h提供注册及登录。多角度剖析OPEC维也纳大会,一文掌握最佳交易时机

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(减)(产)(协)(议)(的)(特)(别)(之)(处)(在)(于)(除)(了)(传)(统)(的)(14个)(OPEC成)(员)(外)(,还)(包)(括)(10个)(非)(OPEC产)(油)(国)(,在)(减)(产)(协)(议)(签)(署)(之)(初)(,规)(定)(非)(OPEC产)(油)(国)(减)(少)(60万)(桶)(/日)(,其)(中)(俄)(罗)(斯)(减)(少)(30万)(桶)(/日)(,约)(占)(10个)(产)(油)(国)(总)(减)(产)(目)(标)(的)(50%,同)(时)(相)(较)(于)(其)(他)(产)(油)(国)(,俄)(罗)(斯)(的)(闲)(置)(产)(能)(达)(到)(了)(40.8万)(桶)(/日)(,这)(使)(得)(俄)(罗)(斯)(短)(时)(间)(可)(以)(弥)(补)(市)(场)(的)(短)(缺)(。
相)(较)(于)(俄)(罗)(斯)(,沙)(特)(在)(14个)(成)(员)(国)(中)(的)(低)(位)(更)(是)(举)(足)(轻)(重)(。首)(先)(,OPEC得)(以)(成)(功)(的)(关)(键)(在)(于)(沙)(特)(弹)(性)(的)(产)(能)(控)(制)(,在)(OPEC成)(立)(之)(初)(,沙)(特)(通)(过)(适)(度)(的)(让)(出)(市)(场)(份)(额)(,从)(而)(实)(现)(油)(市)(的)(调)(节)(,而)(其)(他)(产)(油)(国)(往)(往)(是)(满)(负)(荷)(的)(生)(产)(。这)(正)(是)(沙)(特)(能)(够)(拥)(有)(足)(够)(闲)(置)(产)(能)(的)(关)(键)(原)(因)(之)(一)(。目)(前)(沙)(特)(的)(闲)(置)(产)(能)(超)(200万)(桶)(/日)(,这)(意)(味)(着)(沙)(特)(是)(唯)(一)(一)(个)(可)(以)(短)(时)(间)(快)(速)(大)(量)(增)(产)(的)(国)(家)(。
从)(上)(图)(可)(以)(看)(出)(,沙)(特)(的)(执)(行)(率)(是)(远)(远)(超)(过)(其)(他)(国)(家)(的)(,这)(使)(得)(减)(产)(协)(议)(顺)(利)(实)(行)(。而)(从)(产)(油)(体)(量)(上)(来)(看)(,只)(有)(沙)(特)(是)(达)(到)(1000万)(桶)(/日)(的)(产)(量)(的)(,即)(使)(是)(第)(二)(大)(产)(油)(国)(伊)(拉)(克)(也)(仅)(有)(450万)(桶)(/日)(的)(产)(量)(,因)(此)(沙)(特)(较)(大)(的)(话)(语)(权)(也)(是)(无)(可)(厚)(非)(的)(。
油)(市)(两)(大)(不)(确)(定)(因)(素)(
伊)(朗)(:随)(着)(2015年)(西)(方)(解)(除)(了)(对)(于)(伊)(朗)(的)(制)(裁)(,伊)(朗)(原)(油)(产)(量)(开)(始)(逐)(步)(的)(回)(升)(,这)(使)(的)(市)(场)(的)(供)(给)(出)(现)(了)(明)(显)(的)(过)(剩)(,从)(而)(导)(致)(了)(油)(价)(的)(下)(跌)(。
无)(独)(有)(偶)(,随)(着)(特)(朗)(普)(退)(出)(伊)(核)(协)(议)(,伊)(朗)(将)(于)(2018年)(末)(再)(次)(面)(临)(制)(裁)(的)(风)(险)(,这)(可)(能)(将)(导)(致)(伊)(朗)(的)(原)(油)(出)(口)(下)(降)(100万)(桶)(/日)(甚)(至)(更)(多)(,在)(各)(产)(油)(国)(闲)(置)(产)(能)(有)(限)(的)(情)(况)(下)(,或)(导)(致)(市)(场)(出)(现)(缺)(口)(,进)(而)(再)(次)(抬)(升)(油)(价)(,压)(制)(市)(场)(的)(需)(求)(。
贸)(易)(战)(:此)(轮)(贸)(易)(战)(是)(美)(国)(所)(掀)(起)(的)(全)(球)(范)(围)(内)(的)(贸)(易)(保)(护)(主)(义)(狂)(潮)(,对)(于)(亚)(太)(新)(兴)(市)(场)(以)(及)(欧)(洲)(市)(场)(的)(影)(响)(尤)(为)(重)(大)(。
目)(前)(世)(界)(最)(大)(的)(两)(大)(能)(源)(消)(费)(国)(是)(中)(国)(以)(及)(印)(度)(。不)(过)(由)(于)(今)(年)(以)(来)(油)(价)(的)(不)(断)(抬)(升)(,同)(时)(面)(临)(着)(严)(重)(的)(财)(政)(赤)(字)(问)(题)(,印)(度)(已)(经)(出)(现)(了)(恶)(性)(通)(胀)(,这)(可)(能)(会)(导)(致)(印)(度)(的)(原)(油)(需)(求)(出)(现)(较)(大)(幅)(度)(的)(回)(落)(。
而)(中)(国)(与)(美)(国)(的)(贸)(易)(摩)(擦)(不)(断)(也)(或)(对)(中)(国)(的)(原)(油)(需)(求)(产)(生)(影)(响)(。自)(4月)(初)(起)(,美)(国)(对)(中)(国)(500亿)(美)(元)(的)(产)(品)(开)(始)(征)(税)(,随)(后)(又)(额)(外)(征)(收)(了)(1000亿)(美)(元)(关)(税)(,中)(国)(随)(后)(也)(出)(台)(了)(相)(关)(的)(政)(策)(进)(行)(回)(应)(,这)(使)(得)(市)(场)(担)(忧)(中)(国)(这)(个)(最)(大)(的)(原)(油)(进)(口)(国)(或)(降)(低)(对)(于)(美)(国)(的)(原)(油)(进)(口)(,导)(致)(油)(价)(承)(压)(。
不)(过)(随)(着)(中)(国)(国)(家)(主)(席)(习)(近)(平)(在)(博)(鳌)(论)(坛)(上)(发)(表)(讲)(话)(,中)(美)(两)(国)(的)(紧)(张)(情)(绪)(有)(所)(缓)(解)(,同)(时)(美)(国)(要)(求)(中)(国)(加)(大)(对)(于)(美)(国)(的)(原)(油)(进)(口)(,缩)(小)(中)(美)(两)(国)(的)(贸)(易)(逆)(差)(,短)(时)(间)(市)(场)(的)(焦)(点)(发)(生)(了)(转)(移)(,这)(使)(得)(油)(价)(出)(现)(了)(回)(升)(。
不)(过)(随)(着)(6月)(16日)(美)(国)(再)(次)(公)(布)(对)(华)(征)(税)(清)(单)(,中)(国)(随)(后)(表)(示)(将)(会)(对)(美)(国)(进)(口)(的)(原)(油)(征)(收)(关)(税)(,这)(使)(得)(油)(价)(再)(次)(应)(声)(而)(跌)(。
与)(此)(同)(时)(,随)(着)(6月)(1日)(美)(国)(恢)(复)(对)(于)(欧)(洲)(的)(钢)(铝)(关)(税)(,欧)(洲)(也)(出)(台)(了)(相)(应)(的)(反)(制)(措)(施)(,同)(时)(表)(示)(将)(会)(维)(持)(在)(伊)(核)(协)(议)(的)(框)(架)(内)(,并)(恢)(复)(了)(多)(个)(与)(伊)(朗)(和)(俄)(罗)(斯)(合)(作)(的)(能)(源)(项)(目)(,这)(使)(得)(美)(油)(的)(出)(口)(进)(一)(步)(下)(降)(。
而)(随)(着)(美)(国)(输)(油)(管)(道)(面)(临)(运)(输)(的)(瓶)(颈)(,这)(导)(致)(了)(许)(多)(炼)(油)(厂)(商)(不)(得)(不)(选)(择)(折)(价)(出)(售)(,同)(时)(原)(油)(的)(滞)(销)(可)(能)(导)(致)(原)(油)(库)(存)(出)(现)(回)(升)(,进)(而)(导)(致)(油)(价)(进)(一)(步)(承)(压)(。这)(产)(生)(的)(直)(接)(结)(果)(是)(美)(布)(两)(油)(的)(价)(差)(或)(进)(一)(步)(的)(扩)(大)(。
本)(次)(维)(也)(纳)(会)(议)(
☆会)(议)(议)(程)(一)(览)(☆
注)(:以)(上)(数)(据)(源)(于)(OPEC官)(网)(,时)(间)(均)(为)(北)(京)(时)(间)(
☆三)(种)(可)(能)(性)(☆
第)(一)(种)(情)(况)(:沙)(特)(和)(俄)(罗)(斯)(维)(持)(减)(产)(协)(议)(适)(度)(增)(产)(,产)(量)(介)(于)(50万)(桶)(至)(80万)(桶)(之)(间)(——由)(于)(市)(场)(提)(前)(消)(化)(了)(增)(产)(的)(消)(息)(,市)(场)(影)(响)(有)(限)(。
第)(二)(种)(情)(况)(:俄)(罗)(斯)(和)(沙)(特)(均)(选)(择)(激)(进)(增)(产)(打)(压)(油)(价)(,增)(产)(100万)(桶)(/日)(以)(上)(——超)(出)(预)(期)(,油)(价)(会)(收)(出)(大)(阴)(。
第)(三)(种)(情)(况)(:OPEC其)(他)(成)(员)(不)(同)(意)(增)(产)(,沙)(特)(和)(俄)(罗)(斯)(保)(持)(克)(制)(令)(增)(产)(水)(平)(低)(于)(50万)(桶)(/日)(——低)(于)(预)(期)(,利)(多)(油)(价)(。
☆会)(议)(进)(展)(:伊)(朗)(由)(此)(前)(有)(所)(软)(化)(的)(立)(场)(再)(次)(回)(归)(强)(硬)(,会)(议)(或)(背)(离)(初)(步)(协)(议)(☆
在)(周)(二)(的)(时)(候)(,伊)(朗)(能)(源)(部)(长)(赞)(加)(内)(表)(示)(,他)(对)(OPEC本)(周)(达)(成)(协)(议)(持)(怀)(疑)(态)(度)(,他)(同)(时)(对)(特)(朗)(普)(表)(示)(谴)(责)(,认)(为)(美)(国)(对)(于)(伊)(朗)(以)(及)(委)(内)(瑞)(拉)(的)(制)(裁)(推)(动)(了)(油)(价)(的)(走)(高)(。
但)(是)(在)(星)(期)(三)(晚)(上)(,赞)(加)(内)(则)(表)(示)(他)(对)(于)(OPEC产)(量)(的)(水)(平)(表)(示)(满)(意)(。
赞)(加)(内)(暗)(示)(伊)(朗)(可)(以)(接)(受)(一)(个)(适)(度)(的)(产)(量)(提)(升)(,并)(指)(出)(一)(部)(分)(的)(产)(油)(国)(自)(愿)(将)(产)(量)(调)(低)(至)(减)(产)(协)(议)(所)(规)(定)(的)(水)(平)(。
一)(位)(知)(悉)(伊)(朗)(立)(场)(的)(OPEC消)(息)(人)(士)(则)(表)(示)(,OPEC的)(减)(产)(合)(规)(度)(可)(能)(将)(回)(归)(至)(100%。事)(实)(上)(五)(月)(OPEC的)(减)(产)(合)(规)(度)(再)(次)(创)(出)(了)(新)(高)(,较)(之)(减)(产)(前)(的)(产)(量)(水)(平)(减)(少)(了)(250万)(桶)(/日)(,超)(出)(减)(产)(目)(标)(约)(70万)(桶)(/日)(,这)(意)(味)(着)(如)(果)(回)(归)(100%的)(合)(规)(度)(,OPEC依)(然)(有)(70万)(桶)(左)(右)(的)(增)(产)(空)(间)(。
OPEC秘)(书)(长)(巴)(尔)(金)(都)(表)(示)(,他)(有)(信)(心)(周)(五)(产)(油)(国)(在)(维)(也)(纳)(的)(会)(议)(能)(够)(达)(成)(某)(种)(协)(议)(。
加)(拿)(大)(皇)(家)(银)(行)(资)(本)(市)(场)(全)(球)(大)(宗)(商)(品)(策)(略)(主)(管)(克)(罗)(夫)(特)(表)(示)(,这)(是)(态)(度)(上)(180度)(的)(大)(转)(弯)(,事)(实)(上)(赞)(加)(内)(的)(情)(绪)(是)(完)(全)(乐)(观)(的)(,这)(意)(味)(着)(油)(市)(正)(逃)(离)(一)(场)(灾)(难)(,最)(终)(将)(会)(有)(一)(个)(好)(的)(结)(果)(。
对)(于)(伊)(朗)(的)(表)(态)(,许)(多)(成)(员)(国)(表)(示)(支)(持)(。厄)(瓜)(多)(尔)(称)(,OPEC及)(其)(盟)(友)(可)(能)(经)(过)(一)(番)(妥)(协)(后)(同)(意)(增)(产)(约)(50-60万)(桶)(/每)(日)(。
阿)(曼)(石)(油)(部)(长)(MohammedbinHamadAl-Rumhy称)(,他)(认)(为)(伊)(朗)(周)(五)(将)(同)(意)(增)(产)(,会)(议)(将)(解)(决)(石)(油)(减)(产)(执)(行)(率)(过)(高)(的)(问)(题)(,因)(为)(伊)(朗)(表)(现)(的)(非)(常)(配)(合)(。
消)(息)(人)(士)(指)(出)(,沙)(特)(不)(希)(望)(被)(认)(为)(对)(伊)(朗)(施)(加)(了)(太)(多)(压)(力)(,因)(此)(改)(由)(俄)(罗)(斯)(出)(面)(试)(图)(说)(服)(伊)(朗)(。
赞)(加)(内)(周)(四)(出)(席)(了)(一)(项)(部)(长)(级)(委)(员)(会)(。该)(委)(员)(会)(包)(括)(俄)(罗)(斯)(、沙)(特)(、阿)(联)(酋)(、阿)(曼)(、科)(威)(特)(、阿)(尔)(及)(利)(亚)(和)(委)(内)(瑞)(拉)(,值)(得)(注)(意)(的)(是)(伊)(朗)(通)(常)(并)(非)(该)(委)(员)(会)(一)(员)(。
而)(同)(样)(持)(反)(对)(立)(场)(的)(伊)(拉)(克)(以)(及)(委)(内)(瑞)(拉)(将)(会)(放)(松)(减)(产)(的)(力)(度)(,以)(防)(止)(油)(价)(出)(现)(持)(续)(下)(跌)(。
伊)(拉)(克)(石)(油)(部)(长)(卢)(艾)(比)((JabarAlial-Luaibi)表)(示)(,他)(希)(望)(OPEC会)(议)(能)(够)(达)(成)(协)(议)(,但)(补)(充)(称)(原)(油)(市)(场)(暂)(未)(达)(到)(稳)(定)(的)(水)(平)(。
这)(使)(得)(紧)(张)(的)(会)(议)(气)(氛)(有)(所)(化)(解)(,OPEC暂)(时)(达)(成)(了)(一)(项)(初)(步)(协)(议)(。
不)(过)(在)(随)(后)(的)(部)(长)(级)(会)(议)(上)(,伊)(朗)(油)(长)(赞)(加)(内)(称)(,他)(仍)(认)(为)(OPEC无)(法)(达)(成)(一)(项)(折)(中)(决)(定)(。
赞)(加)(内)(认)(为)(,OPEC无)(法)(达)(成)(协)(议)(,首)(先)(需)(要)(讨)(论)(并)(决)(定)(OPEC内)(部)(的)(主)(要)(问)(题)(。OPEC的)(决)(定)(很)(重)(要)(-在)(此)(之)(后)(,应)(该)(在)(各)(方)(面)(与)(俄)(罗)(斯)(合)(作)(。
虽)(然)(伊)(朗)(反)(对)(增)(产)(,但)(多)(数)(产)(油)(国)(同)(意)(增)(产)(,理)(论)(上)(增)(产)(100万)(桶)(/日)(。尼)(日)(利)(亚)(油)(长)(称)(,本)(次)(会)(议)(的)(讨)(论)(不)(包)(含)(伊)(朗)(制)(裁)(的)(影)(响)(,因)(为)(这)(个)(因)(素)(是)(政)(治)(性)(的)(。
OPEC需)(要)(在)(周)(五)(的)(正)(式)(会)(议)(上)(批)(准)(该)(建)(议)(。该)(组)(织)(最)(终)(背)(离)(初)(步)(协)(议)(也)(并)(非)(罕)(见)(,伊)(朗)(仍)(可)(以)(阻)(止)(该)(协)(议)(,而)(该)(组)(织)(的)(决)(定)(通)(常)(需)(要)(一)(致)(同)(意)(。不)(过)(,沙)(特)(可)(以)(将)(准)(备)(增)(产)(的)(国)(家)(组)(建)(一)(个)(联)(盟)(,以)(此)(来)(绕)(过)(对)(决)(定)(的)(否)(决)(。
不)(过)(即)(使)(背)(离)(了)(初)(步)(协)(议)(,达)(成)(了)(增)(产)(100万)(桶)(/日)(的)(协)(定)(,实)(际)(增)(产)(的)(效)(果)(还)(是)(将)(低)(于)(这)(一)(数)(值)(。
“100万)(桶)(/日)(是)(一)(个)(名)(义)(值)(,实)(际)(增)(产)(效)(果)(可)(能)(比)(这)(低)(,因)(为)(不)(是)(每)(个)(国)(家)(都)(可)(以)(回)(应)(。”沙)(特)(能)(源)(部)(长)(法)(利)(赫)(表)(示)(,“真)(正)(流)(入)(市)(场)(的)(增)(产)(数)(量)(将)(较)(小)(。”
一)(位)(了)(解)(OPEC内)(部)(计)(算)(的)(代)(表)(称)(,实)(际)(增)(产)(幅)(度)(将)(在)(60万)(桶)(/日)(。在)(OPEC成)(员)(国)(中)(,委)(内)(瑞)(拉)(几)(乎)(肯)(定)(无)(法)(增)(产)(,因)(为)(经)(济)(危)(机)(令)(该)(国)(石)(油)(行)(业)(遭)(遇)(冲)(击)(。其)(他)(非)(成)(员)(国)(盟)(友)(中)(,墨)(西)(哥)(不)(大)(可)(能)(会)(增)(长)(。
还)(需)(要)(关)(注)(什)(么)(
☆与)(会)(的)(欧)(美)(原)(油)(企)(业)(☆
本)(次)(OPEC会)(议)(还)(邀)(请)(了)(不)(少)(美)(国)(和)(欧)(洲)(知)(名)(的)(原)(油)(企)(业)(,由)(于)(美)(国)(和)(欧)(洲)(的)(原)(油)(企)(业)(不)(受)(政)(府)(行)(为)(的)(影)(响)(,驱)(动)(因)(素)(在)(于)(原)(油)(的)(价)(格)(和)(需)(求)(,因)(此)(原)(油)(企)(业)(参)(加)(OPEC会)(议)(意)(味)(着)(将)(会)(根)(据)(OPEC的)(行)(动)(方)(向)(做)(出)(选)(择)(。
市)(场)(人)(士)(表)(示)(,特)(朗)(普)(对)(于)(伊)(朗)(以)(及)(委)(内)(瑞)(拉)(的)(制)(裁)(,使)(得)(许)(多)(产)(油)(国)(都)(试)(图)(去)(抢)(占)(市)(场)(份)(额)(,因)(此)(本)(次)(OPEC会)(议)(的)(核)(心)(实)(际)(上)(是)(原)(油)(供)(给)(的)(转)(移)(问)(题)(。
因)(此)(贸)(易)(战)(是)(供)(应)(转)(移)(的)(一)(个)(重)(要)(引)(子)(。
由)(于)(中)(国)(目)(前)(是)(美)(国)(最)(大)(的)(亚)(洲)(原)(油)(买)(家)(,所)(以)(中)(美)(贸)(易)(战)(导)(致)(的)(直)(接)(结)(果)(就)(是)(中)(国)(可)(能)(会)(寻)(求)(从)(其)(他)(国)(家)(获)(取)(原)(油)(,这)(包)(括)(尼)(日)(利)(亚)(、安)(哥)(拉)(和)(阿)(尔)(及)(利)(亚)(等)(非)(洲)(轻)(质)(原)(油)(生)(产)(国)(。
奥)(地)(利)(石)(油)(公)(司)(执)(行)(董)(事)(则)(表)(示)(,贸)(易)(战)(短)(时)(间)(可)(能)(会)(对)(美)(国)(以)(外)(的)(其)(他)(生)(产)(商)(有)(利)(,但)(是)(长)(时)(间)(将)(会)(对)(全)(球)(的)(经)(济)(造)(成)(不)(利)(的)(影)(响)(
美)(国)(原)(油)(生)(产)(公)(司)(先)(锋)(自)(然)(资)(源)(首)(席)(执)(行)(官)(谢)(菲)(尔)(德)(表)(示)(,他)(认)(为)(未)(来)(美)(国)(的)(原)(油)(出)(口)(将)(会)(从)(目)(前)(的)(260万)(桶)(/日)(上)(升)(至)(400万)(桶)(/日)(,他)(希)(望)(这)(些)(新)(的)(原)(油)(供)(应)(可)(以)(找)(到)(新)(的)(买)(家)(,新)(加)(坡)(、日)(本)(、韩)(国)(以)(及)(欧)(盟)(可)(以)(吸)(收)(中)(国)(原)(油)(进)(口)(减)(少)(的)(部)(分)(。
波)(士)(顿)(咨)(询)(公)(司)((BCG)分)(析)(师)(JamieWebster称)(,尽)(管)(中)(国)(对)(美)(国)(原)(油)(进)(口)(征)(收)(关)(税)(为)(OPEC增)(加)(原)(油)(销)(量)(提)(供)(了)(机)(会)(,但)(也)(导)(致)(美)(国)(过)(剩)(供)(应)(增)(加)(,可)(能)(会)(推)(低)(油)(价)(。
☆亚)(洲)(溢)(价)(☆
中)(国)(和)(印)(度)(已)(经)(讨)(论)(过)(创)(建)(“原)(油)(买)(家)(俱)(乐)(部)(”,以)(便)(和)(原)(油)(出)(口)(国)(谈)(判)(,得)(到)(更)(好)(的)(价)(格)(,并)(将)(寻)(求)(进)(口)(更)(多)(美)(国)(原)(油)(,以)(抗)(衡)(OPEC对)(国)(际)(原)(油)(价)(格)(的)(主)(导)(权)(。除)(此)(之)(外)(,韩)(国)(和)(日)(本)(也)(将)(加)(入)(该)(俱)(乐)(部)(。
过)(去)(几)(个)(月)(油)(价)(的)(不)(断)(走)(高)(,使)(得)(印)(度)(背)(负)(了)(沉)(重)(的)(债)(务)(负)(担)(。
数)(据)(显)(示)(,印)(度)(从)(OPEC国)(家)(购)(买)(原)(油)(和)(天)(然)(气)(,分)(别)(占)(其)(进)(口)(总)(量)(的)(86%和)(75%。
印)(度)(能)(源)(部)(长)(对)(OPEC的)(价)(格)(歧)(视)((AsianPremium“亚)(洲)(溢)(价)(”)表)(示)(不)(满)(,他)(指)(出)(“亚)(洲)(溢)(价)(”是)(OPEC向)(中)(国)(和)(印)(度)(等)(亚)(洲)(买)(家)(出)(售)(石)(油)(时)(,收)(取)(的)(额)(外)(费)(用)(。因)(此)(针)(对)(溢)(价)(的)(问)(题)(该)(国)(正)(在)(制)(定)(压)(低)(油)(价)(的)(战)(略)(。
今)(年)(国)(际)(原)(油)(需)(求)(增)(长)(中)(,中)(印)(占)(据)(了)(69%,有)(关)(人)(士)(表)(示)(,这)(两)(个)(国)(家)(发)(生)(的)(事)(也)(许)(比)(维)(也)(纳)(的)(事)(更)(加)(重)(要)(。
☆OPEC或)(被)(定)(性)(为)(垄)(断)(组)(织)(☆
美)(国)(正)(通)(过)(增)(产)(以)(及)(外)(交)(途)(径)(来)(抢)(夺)(OPEC的)(市)(场)(。
早)(些)(时)(候)(有)(消)(息)(称)(,美)(国)(向)(沙)(特)(施)(压)(,要)(求)(其)(增)(加)(原)(油)(产)(量)(100万)(桶)(/日)(以)(换)(取)(美)(国)(对)(于)(伊)(朗)(的)(制)(裁)(,这)(导)(致)(了)(油)(价)(出)(现)(了)(快)(速)(回)(落)(。
不)(过)(随)(着)(欧)(洲)(以)(及)(部)(分)(亚)(洲)(国)(家)(对)(于)(美)(油)(的)(抵)(制)(。
5月)(下)(旬)(,美)(国)(国)(会)(已)(重)(新)(将)(“NoOilProducingandExportingCartelsAct”(NOPEC)法)(案)(提)(上)(了)(议)(程)(,并)(通)(过)(了)(第)(一)(次)(审)(议)(。
若)(该)(法)(案)(通)(过)(,OPEC将)(被)(定)(义)(为)(垄)(断)(组)(织)(,美)(国)(政)(府)(将)(可)(以)(起)(诉)(OPEC操)(纵)(能)(源)(市)(场)(,并)(可)(能)(要)(求)(高)(达)(数)(十)(亿)(美)(元)(的)(赔)(偿)(。
虽)(然)(自)(2000年)(以)(来)(,美)(国)(国)(会)(多)(次)(提)(出)(并)(试)(图)(通)(过)(“NOPEC法)(案)(”,但)(均)(遭)(到)(总)(统)(的)(否)(决)(。然)(而)(,这)(一)(次)(可)(能)(不)(一)(样)(。
哥)(伦)(比)(亚)(大)(学)(全)(球)(能)(源)(政)(策)(中)(心)(主)(任)(、前)(奥)(巴)(马)(政)(府)(石)(油)(官)(员)(JasonBordoff表)(示)(:“特)(朗)(普)(与)(以)(往)(的)(总)(统)(不)(同)(,他)(更)(有)(可)(能)(签)(署)(这)(项)(法)(案)(。”
☆俄)(罗)(斯)(的)(闲)(置)(产)(能)(问)(题)(☆
尽)(管)(俄)(罗)(斯)(是)(目)(前)(为)(数)(不)(多)(有)(较)(多)(闲)(置)(产)(能)(的)(国)(家)(,但)(是)(相)(较)(于)(沙)(特)(的)(逾)(200万)(桶)(/日)(的)(产)(量)(,40万)(桶)(/日)(的)(产)(量)(仍)(略)(显)(不)(足)(。
早)(些)(时)(候)(,有)(消)(息)(称)(沙)(特)(或)(可)(能)(单)(独)(增)(产)(,引)(起)(了)(俄)(罗)(斯)(的)(不)(满)(,俄)(罗)(斯)(随)(后)(表)(示)(增)(产)(份)(额)(需)(要)(共)(享)(。
而)(近)(期)(俄)(罗)(斯)(的)(态)(度)(也)(略)(显)(激)(进)(,已)(表)(态)(希)(望)(OPEC和)(非)(OPEC国)(家)(每)(日)(增)(产)(150万)(桶)(,这)(意)(味)(着)(俄)(罗)(斯)(有)(意)(争)(夺)(更)(多)(的)(市)(场)(份)(额)(,这)(可)(能)(会)(引)(起)(其)(他)(部)(分)(国)(家)(的)(增)(产)(行)(为)(,导)(致)(油)(价)(进)(一)(步)(承)(压)(。
通)(常)(与)(沙)(特)(站)(在)(同)(一)(阵)(营)(的)(海)(湾)(产)(油)(国)(--阿)(联)(酋)(、科)(威)(特)(、阿)(曼)(和)(巴)(林)(--也)(警)(告)(要)(避)(免)(产)(量)(大)(幅)(增)(长)(,并)(暗)(示)(沙)(特)(和)(俄)(罗)(斯)(的)(紧)(密)(合)(作)(令)(他)(们)(忧)(心)(。
不)(过)(即)(使)(俄)(罗)(斯)(以)(及)(沙)(特)(能)(与)(其)(他)(产)(油)(国)(达)(成)(一)(份)(协)(议)(,俄)(罗)(斯)(国)(内)(的)(因)(素)(也)(是)(不)(可)(控)(的)(。有)(消)(息)(称)(,由)(于)(部)(分)(俄)(罗)(斯)(原)(油)(公)(司)(打)(破)(了)(产)(量)(上)(限)(,俄)(罗)(斯)(原)(油)(供)(给)(量)(在)(6月)(首)(周)(涨)(至)(14个)(月)(以)(来)(新)(高)(。当)(周)(,俄)(罗)(斯)(原)(油)(日)(产)(量)(达)(1109万)(桶)(,超)(过)(减)(产)(协)(议)(中)(1095桶)(/日)(的)(限)(额)(。
☆委)(内)(瑞)(拉)(产)(量)(的)(不)(断)(下)(降)(或)(导)(致)(缺)(口)(无)(法)(填)(补)(☆
知)(名)(数)(据)(分)(析)(公)(司)(GlobalData预)(测)(,相)(比)(2011年)(的)(日)(产)(300万)(桶)(原)(油)(,2018年)(底)(委)(内)(瑞)(拉)(原)(油)(日)(产)(量)(将)(大)(幅)(缩)(水)(至)(100万)(桶)(左)(右)(,这)(将)(给)(国)(际)(原)(油)(市)(场)(带)(来)(更)(多)(不)(稳)(定)(因)(素)(。
5月)(美)(国)(总)(统)(特)(朗)(普)(签)(署)(了)(一)(项)(新)(行)(政)(命)(令)(,要)(求)(禁)(止)(与)(委)(内)(瑞)(拉)(进)(行)(某)(些)(石)(油)(交)(易)(。GlobalData认)(为)(,与)(此)(前)(的)(针)(对)(性)(措)(施)(相)(比)(,新)(制)(裁)(措)(施)(更)(具)(象)(征)(意)(义)(,这)(将)(大)(幅)(限)(制)(委)(内)(瑞)(拉)(对)(美)(原)(油)(出)(口)(。
事)(实)(上)(委)(内)(瑞)(拉)(可)(供)(出)(口)(的)(原)(油)(已)(经)(不)(足)(70万)(桶)(/日)(,这)(意)(味)(着)(委)(内)(瑞)(拉)(国)(内)(局)(势)(存)(在)(着)(进)(一)(步)(恶)(化)(的)(可)(能)(,这)(或)(导)(致)(委)(内)(瑞)(拉)(的)(缺)(口)(不)(断)(扩)(大)(,迫)(使)(OPEC不)(得)(不)(增)(加)(产)(量)(目)(标)(。
技)(术)(分)(析)(
1小)(时)(图)(上)(,油)(价)(短)(线)(快)(速)(回)(落)(后)(于)(64.28美)(元)(获)(得)(支)(撑)(,随)(后)(快)(速)(拉)(升)(并)(创)(出)(了)(高)(点)(于)(66.55美)(元)(,但)(是)(随)(后)(依)(然)(承)(压)(于)(66.48美)(元)(。
短)(时)(间)(而)(言)(突)(破)(66.48美)(元)(可)(能)(性)(不)(大)(,有)(回)(测)(65.8美)(元)(的)(可)(能)(性)(,只)(要)(近)(日)(收)(盘)(前)(能)(够)(收)(于)(66.48上)(方)(,将)(会)(出)(现)(进)(一)(步)(的)(反)(弹)(。
任)(何)(时)(候)(只)(要)(跌)(破)(了)(65.8美)(元)(短)(时)(间)(上)(行)(的)(走)(势)(将)(会)(有)(所)(走)(软)(,并)(再)(次)(测)(试)(64.28美)(元)(。
日)(线)(图)(上)(处)(于)(五)(浪)(走)(势)(中)(,在)(没)(有)(跌)(破)(上)(升)(通)(道)(前)(不)(排)(除)(会)(出)(现)(进)(一)(步)(的)(拉)(涨)(。但)(是)(如)(果)(处)(于)(浪)(能)(的)(末)(端)(,那)(么)(将)(会)(出)(现)(一)(波)(三)(浪)(修)(复)(,之)(后)(才)(会)(作)(出)(方)(向)(选)(择)(。
上)(方)(最)(直)(接)(的)(压)(力)(是)(66.66美)(元)(,这)(个)(位)(置)(上)(方)(是)(67.46美)(元)(,站)(上)(这)(个)(位)(置)(将)(会)(测)(试)(69.16美)(元)(。
下)(方)(最)(直)(接)(的)(支)(撑)(是)(63.8美)(元)(,这)(个)(位)(置)(下)(方)(将)(是)(整)(数)(关)(口)(60美)(元)(。返)(回)(搜)(狐)(,查)(看)(更)(多)(
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