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“沪伦通”中的机遇与挑战

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年06月27日 06:35:49
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(后)(面)(着)(重)(分)(享)(沪)(伦)(通)(的)(运)(行)(机)(制)(,大)(家)(对)(沪)(深)(港)(通)(非)(常)(熟)(悉)(的)(,但)(是)(上)(交)(所)(这)(样)(一)(个)(机)(制)(其)(实)(跟)(沪)(深)(港)(通)(有)(很)(大)(的)(不)(同)(。沪)(伦)(通)(面)(对)(着)(时)(差)(、交)(易)(规)(则)(差)(异)(、发)(行)(规)(则)(差)(异)(与)(汇)(率)(差)(异)(等)(技)(术)(性)(问)(题)(。首)(先)(是)(时)(差)(,我)(们)(是)(白)(天)(,那)(边)(是)(黑)(夜)(。所)(以)(如)(果)(说)(两)(边)(采)(用)(现)(有)(的)(沪)(深)(港)(通)(模)(式)(,需)(要)(二)(十)(四)(小)(时)(交)(易)(,这)(其)(实)(是)(不)(可)(能)(的)(事)(情)(。第)(二)(个)(差)(异)(两)(地)(的)(交)(易)(规)(则)(有)(差)(异)(,因)(为)(我)(们)(这)(边)(实)(行)(T+1的)(规)(则)(,实)(行)(涨)(跌)(停)(的)(规)(则)(,那)(边)(是)(T+0也)(没)(有)(涨)(跌)(停)(。我)(们)(这)(边)(是)(审)(核)(制)(,那)(边)(是)(注)(册)(制)(。所)(以)(说)(存)(托)(凭)(证)(这)(样)(一)(个)(安)(排)(,就)(可)(以)(实)(现)(了)(我)(们)(跨)(越)(交)(易)(时)(间)(的)(限)(制)(,另)(外)(他)(在)(我)(们)(这)(边)(发)(行)(CDR,发)(行)(、披)(露)(和)(交)(易)(都)(要)(遵)(循)(我)(们)(这)(边)(的)(交)(易)(规)(则)(。而)(定)(价)(方)(面)(因)(为)(在)(英)(国)(那)(边)(有)(原)(股)(股)(价)(作)(为)(锚)(,我)(们)(这)(边)(如)(果)(发)(CDR,换)(算)(以)(后)(跟)(那)(边)(的)(原)(股)(价)(格)(应)(该)(相)(近)(的)(。
关)(于)(什)(么)(企)(业)(能)(够)(发)(东)(向)(CDR?根)(据)(上)(交)(所)(最)(新)(出)(台)(的)(细)(则)(,规)(模)(300亿)(以)(上)(,而)(且)(在)(伦)(交)(所)(上)(市)(满)(三)(年)(,高)(级)(主)(板)(上)(市)(满)(一)(年)(的)(企)(业)(,我)(们)(认)(为)(主)(要)(以)(富)(时)(100主)(要)(成)(分)(股)(为)(主)(。其)(次)(是)(什)(么)(样)(的)(投)(资)(者)(能)(够)(买)(?局)(限)(在)(机)(构)(投)(资)(者)(和)(持)(股)(三)(百)(万)(以)(上)(的)(自)(然)(人)(投)(资)(者)(。三)(百)(万)(以)(上)(的)(投)(资)(者)(到)(底)(有)(多)(少)(?我)(们)(从)(上)(交)(所)(最)(新)(的)(统)(计)(年)(鉴)(可)(以)(看)(到)(,大)(概)(有)(82万)(户)(。这)(是)(什)(么)(一)(个)(数)(字)(?截)(至)(2018年)(12月)(12日)(,A股)(市)(场)(所)(有)(股)(票)(平)(均)(股)(东)(户)(数)(为)(5.1万)(户)(,这)(里)(面)(自)(然)(人)(占)(绝)(大)(部)(分)(,而)(对)(应)(平)(均)(市)(值)(为)(139.4亿)(。如)(果)(要)(保)(证)(现)(有)(流)(动)(性)(,82万)(人)(的)(自)(然)(人)(,理)(论)(上)(来)(说)(最)(多)(可)(以)(支)(撑)(16只)(一)(百)(多)(亿)(证)(券)(交)(易)(的)(流)(动)(性)(。所)(以)(有)(些)(机)(构)(投)(资)(者)(担)(心)(流)(动)(性)(的)(问)(题)(,但)(是)(我)(要)(从)(两)(个)(角)(度)(考)(虑)(。短)(期)(来)(看)(,比)(如)(机)(构)(投)(资)(者)(买)(了)(东)(向)(CDR后)(想)(要)(抛)(售)(,由)(于)(允)(许)(自)(由)(转)(换)(,其)(实)(可)(以)(选)(择)(跨)(境)(转)(换)(兑)(回)(原)(股)(往)(伦)(交)(所)(市)(场)(抛)(,这)(样)(的)(话)(那)(边)(的)(市)(场)(深)(度)(决)(定)(了)(我)(们)(的)(短)(期)(流)(动)(性)(,不)(完)(全)(局)(限)(在)(我)(们)(境)(内)(到)(底)(有)(多)(少)(人)(能)(参)(与)(。但)(长)(期)(而)(言)(,若)(CDR发)(行)(过)(快)(、规)(模)(过)(大)(或)(赚)(钱)(效)(应)(低)(,本)(土)(市)(场)(流)(动)(性)(会)(持)(续)(不)(足)(,可)(能)(出)(现)(市)(场)(萎)(缩)(的)(情)(况)(,这)(个)(情)(况)(曾)(经)(在)(台)(湾)(地)(区)(发)(生)(过)(,我)(们)(会)(在)(4.6展)(开)(阐)(述)(。
最)(重)(要)(的)(一)(部)(分)(跟)(各)(位)(投)(资)(者)(分)(享)(一)(下)(沪)(伦)(通)(中)(的)(机)(遇)(与)(挑)(战)(,我)(们)(认)(为)(机)(遇)(主)(要)(有)(增)(加)(优)(质)(投)(资)(品)(种)(、标)(的)(指)(数)(波)(动)(更)(小)(和)(进)(一)(步)(分)(散)(风)(险)(三)(个)(方)(面)(。首)(先)(,这)(样)(的)(一)(个)(证)(券)(品)(种)(境)(内)(投)(资)(者)(提)(供)(一)(个)(分)(享)(全)(球)(经)(济)(红)(利)(的)(机)(会)(,也)(增)(加)(了)(一)(个)(优)(质)(的)(投)(资)(品)(种)(。根)(据)(我)(们)(此)(前)(的)(分)(析)(,我)(们)(认)(为)(可)(以)(上)(市)(的)(标)(的)(,主)(要)(是)(集)(中)(在)(富)(时)(100的)(指)(数)(成)(分)(股)(,能)(源)(、银)(行)(、日)(用)(品)(行)(业)(是)(非)(常)(典)(型)(的)(蓝)(筹)(股)(指)(数)(。这)(次)(在)(上)(交)(所)(挂)(牌)(的)(东)(向)(CDR,因)(为)(他)(是)(英)(国)(的)(企)(业)(,他)(的)(营)(收)(是)(扎)(根)(英)(国)(放)(眼)(全)(球)(的)(,企)(业)(现)(金)(流)(取)(决)(于)(全)(球)(经)(济)(;但)(是)(东)(向)(CDR交)(易)(服)(从)(于)(我)(们)(现)(在)(的)(交)(易)(规)(则)(。其)(次)(,波)(动)(的)(角)(度)(来)(看)(,富)(时)(100指)(数)(波)(动)(比)(沪)(深)(300还)(小)(,也)(增)(加)(了)(一)(个)(波)(动)(小)(的)(品)(种)(。第)(三)(,富)(时)(100指)(数)(跟)(发)(达)(国)(家)(一)(体)(化)(的)(相)(关)(性)(比)(较)(高)(,但)(是)(跟)(我)(们)(中)(国)(市)(场)(的)(相)(关)(性)(比)(较)(低)(,我)(们)(两)(地)(的)(相)(关)(性)(大)(概)(只)(有)(0.1级)(。因)(为)(我)(们)(学)(过)(投)(资)(学)(也)(知)(道)(,越)(分)(散)(的)(话)(我)(们)(投)(资)(的)(组)(合)(表)(现)(越)(优)(异)(,夏)(普)(比)(例)(越)(高)(。所)(以)(我)(们)(认)(为)(两)(地)(之)(间)(的)(相)(关)(性)(低)(,也)(是)(提)(供)(了)(我)(们)(进)(一)(步)(分)(散)(的)(风)(险)(品)(种)(。
沪)(伦)(通)(不)(仅)(给)(市)(场)(带)(来)(机)(遇)(,还)(有)(挑)(战)(,我)(们)(认)(为)(挑)(战)(从)(短)(到)(长)(,主)(要)(有)(发)(行)(对)(市)(场)(冲)(击)(、异)(地)(管)(辖)(风)(险)(与)(保)(证)(长)(期)(流)(动)(性)(三)(个)(方)(面)(。首)(先)(是)(沪)(伦)(通)(融)(资)(对)(于)(市)(场)(冲)(击)(,我)(们)(认)(为)(富)(时)(100指)(数)(主)(要)(是)(发)(行)(的)(对)(象)(,这)(样)(一)(个)(对)(象)(里)(面)(市)(值)(前)(十)(的)(公)(司)(,假)(设)(CDR对)(应)(基)(础)(股)(票)(在)(总)(股)(本)(中)(占)(比)(为)(4%,如)(果)(全)(发)(的)(话)(融)(资)(金)(额)(大)(概)(三)(千)(亿)(左)(右)(,当)(然)(这)(个)(不)(是)(一)(下)(子)(完)(全)(推)(出)(来)(的)(,也)(是)(循)(序)(渐)(进)(。所)(以)(我)(们)(认)(为)(这)(样)(一)(个)(发)(行)(的)(规)(模)(,如)(果)(能)(够)(控)(制)(发)(行)(节)(奏)(,其)(实)(短)(期)(内)(对)(于)(我)(们)(市)(场)(的)(冲)(击)(有)(限)(。其)(次)(是)(关)(于)(异)(地)(管)(辖)(的)(问)(题)(,存)(托)(凭)(证)(之)(前)(在)(台)(湾)(地)(区)(的)(实)(践)(不)(是)(很)(成)(功)(,其)(中)(面)(临)(的)(一)(个)(重)(要)(问)(题)(就)(是)(异)(地)(管)(辖)(的)(问)(题)(。从)(台)(湾)(地)(区)(TDR实)(践)(看)(,协)(调)(机)(制)(不)(完)(善)(可)(能)(导)(致)(信)(息)(披)(露)(延)(迟)(等)(问)(题)(。以)(美)(德)(医)(TDR为)(例)(:2009年)(9月)(17日)(公)(司)(已)(接)(获)(台)(湾)(地)(区)(“金)(管)(会)(”通)(知)(,要)(求)(解)(释)(股)(票)(近)(期)(成)(交)(量)(和)(收)(盘)(价)(暴)(涨)(数)(倍)(的)(问)(题)(,9月)(22日)(才)(进)(行)(进)(一)(步)(的)(原)(因)(说)(明)(,较)(第)(一)(上)(市)(地)(新)(加)(坡)(延)(迟)(了)(一)(周)(。此)(类)(问)(题)(的)(预)(防)(与)(解)(决)(取)(决)(于)(我)(们)(上)(海)(跟)(伦)(敦)(的)(协)(调)(是)(否)(顺)(畅)(与)(上)(市)(公)(司)(的)(公)(司)(治)(理)(是)(否)(足)(够)(规)(范)(。第)(三)(个)(挑)(战)(是)(长)(期)(流)(动)(性)(问)(题)(。由)(于)(市)(场)(热)(炒)(后)(泡)(沫)(破)(灭)(,当)(时)(台)(湾)(地)(区)(TDR流)(动)(性)(相)(对)(比)(较)(差)(的)(,承)(接)(我)(刚)(才)(在)(第)(三)(部)(分)(说)(的)(套)(利)(问)(题)(,如)(果)(境)(内)(市)(场)(持)(续)(出)(现)(折)(价)(,金)(融)(机)(构)(就)(会)(有)(一)(个)(动)(力)(在)(台)(湾)(市)(场)(买)(TDR往)(原)(股)(市)(场)(抛)(售)(,但)(是)(越)(抛)(售)(台)(湾)(市)(场)(存)(量)(的)(存)(托)(凭)(证)(会)(越)(来)(越)(少)(,直)(至)(不)(满)(足)(上)(市)(条)(件)(,所)(以)(如)(何)(能)(保)(证)(长)(期)(流)(动)(性)(也)(是)(一)(个)(十)(分)(重)(要)(的)(挑)(战)(。以)(上)(就)(是)(我)(的)(分)(享)(。
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